Originally Posted by ZephyrBlade

I have a theory which is probably totally wrong but i'll throw it out there in case
it triggers some idea from the devs.

Correct me if i'm wrong but it seems like every profession is having difficulty
getting their consumable recipe, which is of lower level than the rest of their
recipes.

I'm making a guess that on the recipe loot table, these recipes are listed first
(by first i mean on the lowest end of the RND spectrum).

Now suppose there is some code that is supposed to "help" higher level toons
by adjusting the RND up by your level. This presumably is because the "better"
loot is higher in the loot table.

If Silius used a low level crafter to open the bags (say he just made a lvl1 toon
for this purpose), the items would follow the correct distribution. On live,
however, we are of appropriate level and it skews the distribution away from
true and we get a very low drop rate for consumable recipes.

Alternatively there might be some Trivial Loot Code interference where we
can't get the lower level consumable recipes in the upper parts of the tier
where we generally get most of the recipe drops (at least that's where i get
most of them). Again, if Silius used a low level toon he woudn'tt see the
problem.

Thoughts?

Originally Posted by Synn

Was outside and thinking about that and my numbers might be off but over the past 4 weeks or so I went from level 21 to 32 in Southwatch and since I didn't write down every attempt I was giving my best estimate. But I do remember around 1000 or so WO's per level give or take. At 11 levels thats around 10,000 WO's and so while not all were Batch's (had to do Sets till the Batch's repopped) I guessed at about 75% of all those WO's were Batch's.

So my numbers are probably lower but they were almost always A Kits when Batchs. Even if maybe only 1/2 of all those WO's I did (guessing way low here) were Easy, Batch, A Kits thats still in the thousands range and I should have seen more than 4 recipes in 11 levels. If your sample size of 10,000 A Kits is any indication I should have seen at least 1/3 of the recipes you got when opening 10,000 Kits en masse. You're getting 100 recipes per 10,000 Kits opened. I got 4. Either I'm the most unlucky RNG black sheep in the world or I dont know..


I will start writing down every batch WO A kit I complete and open from now on for the next few weeks and will give 100% accurate info after maybe another few levels.

Originally Posted by Synn

1. Silius you're still one of my favorite Dev's left.
2. I think we as players should continue to post raw data, and as much of it as possible such as

- Crafting area
- Crafting profession
- Crafting WO difficulties used
- Reward information (what recipes we gain)

3. Any word yet on when the big update patch will go live?
4. Any sign of the UR hide solution finally hitting live?



My info:

Area: Southwatch
Profession: Outfitter Leatherworker
WO Difficulty: Easy
Attempts: 10,000-20,000 (easily) but maybe 75% of those were Batch's.
A Kits: 90% of attempted WO's completed for A kits.
Rewards: 1 x Scouts Ammo Case recipie (at lvl 26 iirc), 2 x Stiff Leather Weapon Upgrade( both at lvl 32), 1 x Crafting Gear Upgrade (at lvl 31)


I Just don't see how the RNG can hate me that bad. If I went from level 21 to 32 in Southwatch for the most part (few hours in Afrit or Elani for faction but still getting A's on easy batch's) and opened around or more Kits than your sample size yet still only get those lousy 4 Recipes?

Originally Posted by Erytheal

1. The story is long, and doesn't need to be posted here. Regardless, it does not mean that I don't respect your efforts, rather, think of it more as "creative differences."

Originally Posted by Gearsn

Rune is still the 2nd item in the table. I will be the devils advocate here and I will say it because I know others will soon. I think the original request was for the loot table chnage to roll to live. we already know the DEV server performs correctly.

Originally Posted by Silius

So I just went through 10000 supply packs and here are my numbers when it comes to recipes.

31 Horsehoe

29 Weapon Upgrade

23 Runes

23 Armor

There is nothing more I can do, the item I used is the same item you get from work orders.

Originally Posted by Jaradis

Silius, first off thanks for the work on this so far. I'm not sure how your recipe tables are set up exactly, but I'm wondering if you can humor all of us on something assuming it doesn't take more than a few minutes of your time....

How hard would it be to shuffle around the recipes on the tables? Since they are all equal drop rates, it theoreticallly should not make a difference. But I'm really curious if we say... swapped the weapon/armor upgrade location on the list with the runes/shoes, something like:

Original Blacksmith Recipe Table:
1 Weapon Upgrade
2 Armor Upgrade
3 Runes
4 Horseshoes

New Table:
1 Runes
2 Horseshoes
3 Weapon Upgrade
4 Armor Upgrade

Do the same with the others, swap the so called "rare ones" with the "common ones" everyone is complaining about. Since % drop rates are the same, theoretically it shouldn't increase or decrease drops at all. If there is something out there causing us to see so many of those "common ones" then we should see a shift in people getting a lot more of those "rare ones". If nothing is broken, well it shouldn't make a difference.

I know you are super busy, so if this anything more than a few min thing, it probably isn't worth asking you to try. But if its something super fast, I'd really be curious to see what happened if it was changed. If its really busted like people think, then they *should* get those "rare" ones more, if they don't... then it pretty much proves nothing is busted.

Originally Posted by Erytheal

Apologies for contributing to the derailment, but I just had to respond to this.

Are you telling me, the LEAD developer for one of Vanguard's Major Spheres didn't know there was a patch being pushed yesterday?!?

*boggle*

I can't blame this on Silius (no offense Sillius, but you are not my favorite person, as many folks from the Hilsbury /craft channel will attest), but it seems to be the "patch team" (or whatever equivalent SoE is using) needs some serious work on their communication skills. Aside from the abominable timing for the patch for anyone on the East Coast (why couldn't it wait for the morning of the 6th?), when a Lead Developer says he didn't know a patch was going in, that just rings my alarm bells.

Now, onto the derailment. Silius and others, if you have a problem with what Alannah was saying, you need to seriously take a step back, and look yourselves in the mirror. That was nothing but basic Statistics, taken from any college level course. For those that just dismissed the standard deviation figures, I highly recommend reading up a little more on what it is, signifies, and how it can be used to intepret data sets. That was nothing but constructive criticism, and if you took it as more than that, then you should be ashamed of yourselves. This is a community forum, dedicated to the improvement of crafting. While many ideas are found to be unreasonable after scrutiny from the common sense test, the overall goal remains the same: Improve the Crafting Sphere to be the best it can. Casually dismissing someone elses data analysis simply because you don't agree makes you look like astronomers that insisted the world was flat.

Alannah and others have posted plenty of links all ready; but consider this. If casino's or state lotteries operated with the standard deviations from Silius' test runs, they would be shut down as soon as what was happening became obvious.

Ery

Originally Posted by durango

For clothing, do the different clothing locations also have an equal chance to drop as well? Say chests having an equal chance of legs?

Originally Posted by Aired

Having been in VG since beta 3.5 I've come to know that Silius is probably one of the best Dev's I've ever talked with in game or through forums. If you have information that may help him re-evaluate something that is what you need to be posting. Casting dispersions about a person or how he does his job is counter productive. That being said...

Did any of these bug fixes make it in this patch today? Just curious as there wasn't anything in the patch notes except the duplicate of the test notes from before.